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The STC-Yemeni Government Partnership: Has it Reached a Dead End?

 The 2019 Riyadh Agreement is an important milestone in Yemen’s ongoing conflict, introducing a power-sharing framework among the anti-Houthi coalition that culminated in the creation of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) in April 2022. This power-sharing agreement had a dual objective: defusing tensions between the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG), and improving public services and stabilization efforts in areas under their control. For the STC, the agreement was an instrument to gain recognition by becoming part of the IRG. Meanwhile, the Yemeni government hoped this partnership would integrate the STC and moderate its demands. Ultimately, however, regional powers, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, played a decisive role in achieving this agreement. The duo successfully pressured their Yemeni allies to accept the deal and share power to prevent fractures within the anti-Houthi coalition.  In th...

After Assad’s Fall, Is Yemen’s Peace Roadmap Still Viable Anymore?

 Introduction A year ago, UN Special Envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg announced a peace roadmap that would end Yemen’s decade-long civil war. The roadmap aims to transform the current informal truce into a permanent nation-wide ceasefire. It includes a number of confidence-building steps, such as payment of public sector salaries, resumption of oil exports, reopening of all roads and crossings, and lifting of restrictions on Sana’a Airport and Hodeidah Port. The implementation of this roadmap was set to take place over a three-year period. However, one year has passed, and very little progress has been made except in the partial opening of roads in Taiz and Marib, limited prisoner exchange deals, and easing restrictions on Yemeni ports.  Even though the roadmap was announced after the eruption of hostilities in Gaza, many believe this ongoing regional war has halted the implementation of the peace roadmap.  The Gaza war has indeed diverted attention from the Yemeni conflict,...

Will Yemen See a New Escalation Under Trump Second Term?

 Introduction The return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office is expected to bring significant changes to US foreign policy, given the stark contrasts between Trump and Biden on many issues including how to respond to Middle East developments and ensure American national security. Yemen has become increasingly entangled in the region’s turmoil, especially following the eruption of hostilities in Gaza on October 7, 2023. The Houthis have openly aligned themselves with the resistance against Israel, declaring that they will continue their attacks until Israel halts its military operations in Gaza. This in turn has deepened Yemen's involvement in the broader regional dynamics, escalating tensions within an already fragile local context. While the US has established an international task force (Operation Prosperity Guardian) to protect international shipping in the Red Sea and the surrounding waters, it has failed to deter the Houthis from continuing their course. Arab and Muslim America...

Fragmenting South Yemen: Domestic Challenges and External Pressures

 Introduction  Since its inception in 2007, the Hirak movement has played a crucial role in revitalizing and sustaining the independence struggle in South Yemen, transforming individual energies into a fierce political movement. The peaceful movement was successful in mobilizing the masses and gaining wider support of the Southern population, creating significant political momentum for the Southern cause. However, incessant leadership struggles within the decentralized Hirak movement compromised its ability to present itself as a singular front. Despite sharing a common goal, various Hiraki groups and factions were unable to coalesce under a unified leadership or organizational structure. There were also exogenous attempts to perpetuate this state of fragmentation by the Saleh regime and other influential political actors in Yemeni politics. As a result, this factionalization weakened the impact of the movement’s collective action against Northern dominance and created complic...

Breaking the Vicious Cycle: Addressing Predatory Governance in Yemen

 Introduction: What is a Predatory State?  Among the political philosophies that talk about the origins of governments and states, social contract theory has been foundational in shaping modern political thought. The idea that governments are created through a voluntary agreement among free individuals to ensure collective protection and societal well-being has been influential in developing the political institutions especially in liberal democratic states. According to Hobbes, government is a necessary evil against man’s state of nature where life is “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short”. In this perspective, a contractual state acts as a provider of public goods and services in exchange for the citizens’ obedience to the law and giving up some of their freedoms and liberties. However, in autocratic states, the idea of a social contract seems absurd because the benefits that citizens can reap from erection of governments are minimal. Instead, the state engages in predat...

From Fragile Truce to Maritime Turmoil: Unraveling the Houthis’ Peace Trojan Horse in Yemen

 Introduction Since the beginning of the civil war in Yemen, there has not been this level of optimism regarding the resolution of the conflict, with a widespread belief that the country is ripe for peace. In 2022, the UN was finally able to negotiate a long-term truce between the warring parties that started in April 2022 and is partially operational to date. The truce effectively brought a halt to the Saudi airstrikes and significantly reduced battle-related violence at the domestic front. This development can be attributed mainly to two factors. First, the international community prioritized ending the conflict in Yemen and spent substantial resources to pressure the Saudis to end their operations, under the assumption that the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen was mainly responsible for the tremendous humanitarian crisis without being able to defeat the Houthis. Second, there were shifts in the priorities within the Saudi foreign policy, especially in the aftermath of their deal with...

A Precarious Partnership: Navigating the Saudi-STC Relations Amidst Shifting Dynamics and Complex Challenges

  Introduction The unexpected Houthi takeover of the capital, Sana’a, in 2014 marked a significant blow to the Saudi policymakers. The Saudis found themselves neighboring an openly hostile and unruly regime, which was readily forging a close alliance with Iran and “the resistance camp.” Despite this disconcerting development, it was only after the succession of leadership in Riyadh and the escalation of events in Yemen that the Saudi-led military intervention commenced in late March 2015, known as  the Decisive Storm operation . With this bold measure, the Saudis still lacked a well-defined strategy for achieving their stated goals. Reports indicated that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman displayed excessive confidence in his country’s ability to defeat the Houthis and restore President Hadi and the internationally recognized government (IRG) to power in  a matter of few weeks . While the case for intervention was well-justified internationally at the time, it overes...