Among various Arab Spring countries,
Yemen was hailed as an exemplar to a good transition. The world was impressed
that the region’s no 1 country with the largest arms per capita has not
succumbed into a civil war like Syria or Libya. Despite limited armed clashes
here and there, the image was far positive than initial expectations of how an armed
society may turn into. In Nov 2011 and after numerous cycles of negotiations,
Yemen’s longest serving president Saleh officially handed power to his deputy
Hadi in exchange for an immunity from legal prosecution for his time in office.
This was known as the GCC initiative and it succeeded largely because Saudi
Arabia was the main the broker of the deal –an oil-rich neighbor that enjoys
tremendous leverage in Yemen. Unlike other turbulent countries like Libya and
Syria, the international community has largely delegated Yemen’s issue to its
Gulf partners. Hadi assumed his presidency officially after single-candidate nation-wide
elections in Feb 2012 that served the purpose of a referendum. His period was
set to 2-years in which a national dialogue would start, military would be reshuffled
and prepare the country for post-transition period. Although security and
economic performance initially improved, the transition period did not go as
planned. The transitional government ( half of which came from Saleh's GPC
Party) led by veteran Basindwa faced many
difficulties that rendered it ineffective. Meanwhile Houthis were advancing
from their stronghold Saadah until they reached Amran- the gateway city to
Sanaa. Until this point, Saleh-Houthi
alliance was not clear. A good number of people dismissed it as mere
"conspiracy theory talk". Nevertheless, Saleh and Houthi leaders
faced UN sanctions for stalling transition but this move only infuriated
Saleh and his allies- which in turn
facilitated the coup against Hadi and his regime with Houthis entering and controlling
the capital city Sanaa in Sep 21 2016 with full support and documented coordination
with Saleh.
Despite the fact it was on Sep 21st
that Houthis usurped power in Yemen by means of force, it was until few months
later that full-scale war broke out. In March 2015, Houthis and Saleh decided
to get rid of Hadi after he escaped his
house arrest and fled to Aden, the southern part of the country, taking it as
his refuge and a temporary capital to restore his authority. It is widely
believed that without the very existence of this treacherous Houthi-Saleh
alliance, the coup against Hadi would have not been taken place and the whole
war would not have materialized except for short-lived clashes here and there.
However the reasons behind the dismissal reports about the
existence of such alliance is rooted in the fact that Saleh and Houthis had fought
against other fierce 6 wars between 2004-2010. The memories of these wars are
still vivid- thousands of human casualties, displaced families, traumatized
kids and shattered local agrarian economy. We can watch video records in
Youtube of Saleh attacking the Houthis
and accusing them to have links with Iran and aiming to restore the Imam-led
monarchy that pre-existed the republican regime in North Yemen. He repeatedly
described them as thugs and vandals of public and private property in Sadah. In
turn, the Houthis consistently called Saleh a corrupt tyrant and accused him of
being a traitor serving Saudi. Israeli and US interests. Not surprisingly, the
Houthis joined the 2011 peaceful protests, which demanded the fall of Saleh’s
regime like other Arab Spring countries.
Only very hardcore
realists who subscribe to the notion that “ there’s no such thing in politics
as permanent allies or permanent
enemies" could anticipate such move. Nevertheless, it was a technically
necessary alliance as both Saleh and Houthis needed each other. Sales is
powerful however he is a signatory of the GCC initiative. He already handed
power and any direct attempts to overthrow Hadi from his side would only
jeopardize his immunity, assets and the future political career for his son and
other close associates. That is why he was very delicate and secretive in his
dealings with the Houthis. The Houthis on the other hand have displayed
opposition to the outcomes of the national dialogue and were not happy with the
GCC initiative in the first place, ironically accusing it for saving the
"dictator" and stripping the "revolution" from its essence. Given that Saleh cannot overtly lead a coup
and Houthis being unable to highhandedly dethrone Hadi's regime without Saleh's
resources and contacts, their alliance was politically inevitable despite all
the odds.
Despite
being treacherous in nature instigating civil strife and war, Saleh and Houthi
alliance is a good manifestation of prudent play of politics. In fact, without
the Saudi-led coalition intervention, it would have been very capable of
crushing its opponents and it would have taken effective control of the country
marking a post-Hadi era. Some observers say that the Saudi-led air campaign has
unintentionally strengthened Saleh-Houthi
alliances as both sides found a common enemy knowing that they can't survive
without the full cooperation and coordination with each other. Also, if such
campaign did not start in the first place, it is very possible that they will
fight each other until one is able to eliminate the other and
monopolized power. However we can only speculate on what could have happened if
some events turned differently. But we can't deny the fact that Saleh and the
Houthis formed a formidable alliance. In short, they
complement each other as they fill what each lacks – ideology for Saleh and
state experience for Houthis. Saleh is a master of politics and has
ruled the country utilizing his "dancing over the snakes" tactics.
His pragmatism allows him to be flexible and work with his former enemies as
long as he gets out victorious and crush rivals who currently threaten his
power. However Houthis fight a holy war. Just like alQaeda and ISIS, the
Houthis consider their fighters to be martyors for God and Islam. They call
their movement al-Miserah alQuraniyah ( The Quranic March) and they prefer to
call themselves as Ansarallah ( Supporters of God ) rather than the Houthis as
the later is associated with a family rather than a political and social
project. Also, Houthis know that they
can't capture the Yemeni state without coordination with Saleh as his men
dominate both the military and bureaucracy. Of course, both Saleh and Houthis
know that sooner or later they will have to clash however until that time comes,
they will manage to find other local and foreign allies.